In Sunday’s Savannah Morning News, Marcus Howard reported on recent estimates from the U.S. Census that show net migration to Chatham County was negative from 2007 to 2011.
Simply put, more people moved out of Chatham County than moved into it.
As the piece noted, those years included the deep recession that began in late 2007. Given the Savannah area economy’s reliance on construction during the housing boom and the steep decline in local employment during the bust, it’s not surprising that many residents would pull up stakes during that stretch.
Looking for more information about who moved and why, I spent some time digging into the population estimates in search of some clearer motives for migration among Chatham, Bryan and Effingham counties. Those three counties make up the Savannah Metropolitan Statistical Area.
But the data do not support easy generalizations or clear answers.
For example, the household income breakdown tells several different stories about migration between Effingham and Chatham counties.
The estimates show that those with household incomes between $10,000 and $25,000 were considerably more likely to move out of Chatham County into Effingham County than the other way around.
In the battle with Effingham County, Chatham County was the slight winner among households making $25,000 to $35,000, and migration between the two counties was well-balanced for those with a household income between $35,000 and $50,000.
However, residents with a household income of $50,000 to $75,000 were more likely to move from Effingham to Chatham.
From $75,000 to $150,000 in household income, the trend reversed. More folks in that income group moved out of Chatham County and into Effingham County.
The trend flipped again for those with a household income above $150,000. In that income group, the migration trend slightly favored Chatham County over Effingham County.
So what was special about that sweet spot for Chatham County that allowed it to attract Effingham households with an income between $50,000 and $75,000? And why did Chatham lose households both below and above that level?
In that same $50,000 to $75,000 income group, Chatham County also had strongly positive net migration from both Bryan and Liberty counties.
Those with graduate or professional degrees were also far more likely to move to Chatham County from Effingham or Bryan counties than the other way around.
A full accounting of the differences between various income groups and education levels would probably require a pretty deep analysis of employment numbers, of housing prices and of public education options.
City Talk appears every Sunday and Tuesday. Bill Dawers can be reached via billdawers@comcast.net and http://www.billdawers.com. Send mail to 10 E. 32nd St., Savannah, GA 31401.