The unemployment rate in the Savannah metro area ticked up to 6.7 percent in March from 6.6 percent in February.
Most of the state saw the unemployment rate stay the same or fall slightly in March compared to February.
But, all in all, Savannah’s numbers look fairly promising.
First, it’s worth remembering that the unemployment rate is determined from an ongoing survey of households.
The estimates from the household survey are pretty noisy from month to month and can diverge dramatically from the survey of payroll establishments, which is generally used to track overall employment. Over time, however, the two surveys paint a similar picture of employment trends.
The unemployment rate for the Savannah metro area (Chatham, Bryan and Effingham counties) has increased this spring primarily because of an increase in the size of the civilian labor force.
According to the latest estimates, more than 1,000 additional area residents reported themselves as employed in March than in February. But the unemployment rate increased because more than 1,400 additional area residents were participating in the labor force.
In March 2013, there were an estimated 182,115 people in the metro area labor force. In March 2014, that number was 183,866. That’s a pretty healthy year-over-year increase of almost 1 percent.
Even with the increase in the civilian labor force, the local unemployment rate fell over the last year from 7.4 percent in March 2013 to 6.7 percent in March 2014.
Savannah, Athens and Atlanta are the only metro areas in Georgia with labor forces that have grown over the last year.
Consider Augusta. Some might be heartened to see that the unemployment rate fell from 7.7 percent in March 2013 to 6.6 percent in March 2014. At first glance, that number looks considerably better than the estimates for Savannah.
But over the past year the Augusta metro area has seen significant declines in the size of the labor force and in the number of residents who say they are employed, according to the household survey.
Demographic trends are putting downward pressure on the labor force participation rate across the U.S., but it is also likely that declining participation in recent years has been a result of persistent economic weakness.
The relative surge in the size of Savannah’s labor force might be an indication of renewed confidence among jobseekers. While the unemployment rate is declining more quickly in some other metro areas in Georgia, Savannah’s numbers suggest that we might be experiencing a more robust recovery.
Of course, it’s also worth adding that, at the current pace of improvement, the unemployment rate in the Savannah metro area will likely stay above 5 percent until fall of 2016.
City Talk appears every Sunday and Tuesday. Bill Dawers can be reached via billdawers@comcast.net. Send mail to 10 E. 32nd St., Savannah, GA 31401.