Georgia has had the worst unemployment rate in the nation for the last two months.
The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in September was 7.9 percent, down slightly from 8.1 percent in August and from 8.0 percent in September 2013.
September is generally a pretty strong month for employment, so it’s no surprise that Georgia’s unadjusted rate for September was several tenths better — 7.5 percent.
It’s interesting to note that several Georgia metro areas had significantly lower unadjusted unemployment rates in September, including Athens (5.7 percent), Gainesville (6.0 percent), Savannah (7.0 percent), Warner Robins (7.1 percent), Augusta (7.3 percent) and Atlanta (7.3 percent).
Math whizzes know where this is headed.
More than 70 percent of Georgia’s labor force lives in metro areas with unemployment rates at least a couple of tenths below the statewide rate, while the unemployment rates are exceptionally high in other metro areas and in some rural areas. Eighty-one of Georgia’s 159 counties had unemployment rates over 8 percent in September. Again, September is generally a strong month for job growth.
While the Savannah metro area (Chatham, Effingham and Bryan counties) has been posting much better employment numbers than much of the state, we see regional variations here too.
For example, the Savannah area unemployment rate was 7.0 percent in September, but the rate within the city of Savannah was 8.4 percent. It’s typical to see similar disparities between the unemployment rates in inner cities and the rates in the suburbs, but the local estimates are worrisomely high.
According to the survey of payroll establishments, the Savannah metro area has added an impressive 4,400 jobs over the past year, but local employment in manufacturing and construction continues to stagnate.
The biggest gains in employment over the last 12 months have been in leisure and hospitality and in transportation, warehousing and utilities.
Jobs in leisure and hospitality now comprise almost 15 percent of Savannah metro area employment. About 10 percent of jobs across the state are categorized as leisure and hospitality.
So what’s the takeaway from the September numbers?
The Savannah metro area seems to be in the midst of a significant jobs recovery, but we are likely still a couple of years away from reaching the 5.5 percent unemployment rate that we averaged in 2008 as the recession was taking hold.
How will these ongoing employment woes, both in Savannah and across the state, impact the upcoming election?
It’s really hard to say. There has been a lot of political commentary lately, but I’m not satisfied that any analysts have a really strong grasp of the complex dynamics that we’re seeing right now.
City Talk appears every Sunday and Tuesday. Bill Dawers can be reached via billdawers@comcast.net. Send mail to 10 E. 32nd St., Savannah, GA 31401.
