ATLANTA — Savannah’s job-growth rate next year will improve to 2.8 percent, according to the outlook released Wednesday by Georgia State University’s Economic Forecasting Center.
It and Atlanta be the two most vibrant metro areas for the second year in a row. This year, both areas are slated to wind up with growth of 2.4 percent this year. Next year, Atlanta will register the same rate, but Savannah should enjoy the best rate in the state, according to the forecast.
Savannah gained 1,440 jobs in the July-September period, with the government sector adding 600, transportation/utilities 550 and construction/mining 320. Those compensated for losses elsewhere, including 210 in manufacturing and 110 in the professional/business-services sectors.
Statewide next year, tourism-related payrolls will swell faster than other sectors as will those in healthcare across Georgia, but manufacturing employment and exports will be slowed by weak global demand.
Rises in home values that boost property-tax digests are reviving local government budgets.
“Unsurprisingly, this has led to higher employment levels, where one in 10 people work for their local government in this modern era,” said Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Forecasting Center. “Furthermore, home prices are expected to continue to rise, which will result in more local spending and subsequent hiring.”
Work deepening the Savannah River, building two nuclear reactors at Plant Vogtle and erecting stadiums for the Atlanta Braves and Falcons should keep construction crews busy for coming years.
However, stimulus that normally results from declining oil prices will be largely missing because individual paychecks are getting any fatter, Dhawan said.
“When income growth is limited, forcing consumers to draw on liquid assets to buy a big-ticket item, something else has to give,” he said. “That something else in the view of rational consumers is discretionary spending.”
The economist also mentioned a topic that became an issue in the governor’s race this year: the fact that the state’s unemployment rate is the highest in the country. He blamed it on flaws in collecting the data which under distorts employment in states like Georgia and South Carolina that have significant manufacturing sectors. Increases in state income-tax withholding prove the number of jobs is indeed growing.
“One needs to discount unemployment-rate movements as a broad indicator of economic wellbeing,” he said. “...Time to retire the faulty unemployment-rate metric for good.”
