So 2015 is an election year for the city of Savannah.
With residents so frustrated by crime and other issues, could we see a sea change at City Hall?
Anything is possible, but not everything is likely.
We don’t seem to do ourselves any favors by having city elections in odd years, but that seems fitting for Savannah.
In the December 2011 runoff against Jeff Felser, Mayor Edna Jackson won a healthy 57 percent of the vote, but turnout was only about 30 percent. Jackson beat Felser by fewer than 3,000 votes.
I frequently hear Savannahians remark that race determines the outcomes in local elections, but that’s overstating the case.
Sure, race is an important factor, but in that same December 2011 runoff, Tom Bordeaux racked up more than 56 percent of the vote for alderman-at-large.
Assuming she runs for re-election, Jackson would be a solid favorite. Many of us have grown increasingly frustrated by city governance, but Jackson remains a likeable, enthusiastic Savannah booster who has forged impressive political connections over many years.
O.C. Welch is apparently weighing a run for mayor, and Murray Silver has already declared. Both have voices that could shake up the campaign, and there is ample time for others to declare their candidacies.
Expect serious challengers in some of the aldermanic races. While it’s difficult to knock off incumbents, we see challengers win seats every couple of cycles.
In 2011, John Hall beat District 4 incumbent Larry Stuber by 18 votes.
The 2015 election could be especially unpredictable because of the new aldermanic map. The district lines have shifted west to reflect the population growth on that side of town.
The new lines are based on the 2010 U.S. Census, but it’s worth noting that some dramatic demographic shifts are ongoing. The new District 2, for example, will likely have a markedly higher percentage of white voters than officials have estimated.
If you’re reading this column, you’ll likely be following
the shifting political winds throughout 2015, but you are in the minority.
Fewer than one-third of Savannah’s registered voters turned out for the general election in November 2011. Three city council members needed fewer than 2,000 votes to win outright.
If any of the challengers can drive turnout in a meaningful way, things might get really interesting.
If she senses a serious challenge in the mayoral race, Jackson could also change the dynamics in a variety of ways by shaking up the city manager’s office or by setting new priorities.
It’s going to be fascinating to watch the drama, at least for those of us who will be paying attention.
City Talk appears every Sunday and Tuesday. Bill Dawers can be reached via billdawers@comcast.net. Send mail to 10 E. 32nd St., Savannah, GA 31401.