ATLANTA — The factors needed for healthy economic growth are falling into place, according to Georgia State University’s quarterly forecast released Wednesday.
“We could be poised for a takeoff in growth,” said Rajeev Dhawan, director of the school’s Economic Forecasting Center.
Savannah’s runway, though, has had some bumps during the past quarter, including the loss of 220 jobs in manufacturing, 190 in construction and 300 in professional and business services.
The outlook calls for the year to finish at 0.8 percent job growth, but next year will be nearly twice that.
“Third-quarter (July-September) gross tonnage for the ports of Savannah and Brunswick grew 5.3 percent from a year ago as distributors like Ballard Pacific Resources continued to choose Savannah as their gateway to the Southeast. Nevertheless, Savannah continued its decline in total employment in July and August, losing a net of 290 jobs,” he said.
Georgia’s employment growth rate in August was better than the nation’s, and the center’s forecast calls for the state to create 85,000 jobs this year compared to 63,000 in 2012.
Next year, job creation will top 78,000, and an increasing share will be higher-paying.
“The quality of the jobs gained, as measured by personal income or wage growth, has been less than stellar,” Dhawan said.
Georgia’s unemployment rate is expected to wind up averaging 8.5 percent this year but decline to 8.2 next year and fall to 7.3 the following 12 months.
Local governments, including school boards, are the latest sector to feel the crush of the recession due to declines in property values. Many governments have nearly depleted reserves, but the forecast predicts a new wave of investment will help property values and the construction industry.
Overall, the state and national economies could launch skyward if potential hurdles such as another government shutdown don’t dampen consumer and corporate confidence, Dhawan said.
Plus, what he calls a “global malaise” has the potential to depress exports, which would weaken U.S. manufacturing, business investment and job creation.
Nevertheless, he’s optimistic about 2015, calling for gross domestic product to ratchet up to 3.0 percent after next year’s 2.0 percent repeat of this year.
“A new Congress will be a factor in that change, ushering in the possibility of less partisanship and bickering,” he said. “Such a shift will free investment to take off and, in turn, produce good job and income growth in 2015.”