‘Twas the night before Christmas, here in Savannah
And egg nog I sipped at the poolside cabana.
When across the wide marsh blew a mild wintry breeze
It swayed Spanish moss draping the stately oak trees.
Though this Christmas-eve setting seemed foreign and weird
Santa would still be here in his red suit and white beard.
So I was not surprised when my thoughts turned to rhyme
For that too’s a tradition ‘round holiday time.
So into my crystal ball I did anxiously gaze.
Hoping I’d see coming a much faster growth phase.
But since the downturn ended some five years ago
We’ve had a recov’ry that’s been painfully slow.
Though unemployment is down, the job market’s still weak
And too many workers face prospects that seem bleak.
Some are so discouraged they’ve stopped looking for work
While others fear health reforms will end a job perk.
What’s behind this long slump in growth? Here’s a key cause:
It’s the unknown effects of big sweeping new laws.
‘Cause when Congress enacts big complex reforms
The rest of us lose track of old business norms.
In its zeal to control, does government persist.
With coercive rules and regs in place of the fist.
But “government-knows-best” is a costly conceit
That’s kept bus’ness from getting back up on its feet.
So with “Obama Care’s” launch now coming up short
Even supporters see how it just might abort.
For banks, Dodd-Frank reforms seem also perplexing
While for traders, the Volcker rule will be vexing.
Meanwhile Congress and President constantly fight
Unable to please either the left or the right.
But in a late year deal that’s modest in scope
A compromise budget plan gives some people hope.
While gridlock keeps other big issues on hold
The Fed holds to a course that’s been novel and bold.
For five years and counting it’s kept credit terms easy
But now I confess it’s all making me queasy.
Some think that high stock prices mean everything’s fine
But I fear in the long run things won’t stay benign.
For if history’s lessons we somehow forget
The Fed’s bond price fixing will end in regret.
So at times the markets seem wary and on edge
Fearing how the Fed end its low int’rest rate pledge.
But soon the Fed will end this bond-buying caper
And will likely begin with some sort of taper.
But the Fed must take care under new Chairman Yellen
To prevent panic when it starts its bond-sellin’.
So the Fed on actions and words will try to guide
Market expectations to prevent a hard slide.
But our future rests on more than policy acts
And I find much to cheer when I look at the facts.
But mostly I’m cheered by folks’ ambition and drive
For those noble traits are what allow us to thrive.
So though I don’t see growth getting suddenly fast
I think this next year’s expansion won’t be the last.
And with that hopeful view of the coming new year
I toast you all with a glass of holiday cheer.
ABOUT RESLER
David Resler is an economist who retired to Savannah in 2012 after serving for 27 years as chief economist at Nomura Securities International, Inc in New York. He has appeared on CNBC, FBN, Bloomberg radio and television and has offered “expert commentary” on current economic conditions as well as monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy to print and electronic media, including, Barrons, the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, and the Economist.
For the past 30 years he has composed a yearly forecast in the style of Clement Moore’s classic poem, “A Visit from St. Nicholas,” including this year’s version, which appears here.